Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 106.626874 121.883854 139.039711 159.853581 184.546840 213.060029 248.696606
2026-01-11 87.870879 107.648889 131.855489 164.008590 206.118448 260.127897 335.849336
2026-01-18 75.515612 97.268384 125.599375 165.890827 222.864399 302.342967 424.909985
2026-01-25 66.294232 88.798803 119.582190 165.838213 235.512256 339.860144 514.700092
2026-02-01 58.361649 80.665835 112.409687 162.318405 241.583412 367.735663 595.099220
2026-02-08 52.016108 73.833170 105.953133 158.472494 245.862286 392.732133 675.746077
2026-02-15 46.934031 68.188319 100.426872 155.015676 249.758439 417.165562 760.679679
2026-02-22 45.361175 67.629212 102.550235 164.068136 276.130235 486.074175 950.480807
2026-03-01 42.533566 64.759219 100.576324 165.772519 289.455585 533.039462 1108.403963
2026-03-08 40.155108 62.348198 99.039074 167.932363 303.826871 584.828010 1293.453178
2026-03-15 37.654590 59.481100 96.389696 167.637232 313.207146 627.948794 1471.705189
2026-03-22 36.856564 59.402260 98.549957 176.639940 343.065801 723.001043 1822.152195
2026-03-29 35.694541 58.651190 99.545539 183.775879 370.943445 822.267943 2234.812618
2026-04-05 34.392968 57.532238 99.745532 189.352896 396.550491 923.386373 2706.379119
2026-04-12 32.814882 55.761781 98.513851 191.735688 415.166549 1011.571824 3183.841978
2026-04-19 31.112258 53.609225 96.314255 191.703866 427.889181 1087.163118 3660.299829
2026-04-26 29.130234 50.768320 92.478302 187.519300 429.316578 1130.250487 4034.203942
2026-05-03 27.292028 48.064762 88.677567 182.944953 428.944339 1168.033935 4411.515306
2026-05-10 25.664617 45.650811 85.257481 178.835879 429.115583 1207.858526 4827.227414
2026-05-17 25.517538 46.137803 87.922428 189.604134 473.025618 1409.142166 6219.302390
2026-05-24 24.609109 45.025457 87.073170 191.634035 492.147489 1530.412172 7297.441628
2026-05-31 23.806041 44.067144 86.469199 194.207472 513.534043 1668.590820 8628.479363
2026-06-07 22.833473 42.688953 84.815280 193.855755 525.797490 1775.953859 9882.848978